Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,094$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(702 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,327.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,327.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $113$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(30.4 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(106.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $798$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,198$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,723.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30,723.4\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,965$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(617 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,924.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,924.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,033$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $241,419$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,212.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(234,212.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,854$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,866.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,866.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,621$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,839,436$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.17 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,724,997.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 68.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,724,997.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $129,676$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,835.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.8)}}\) (asimptote \(122,835.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,815,435$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $286,412$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,922.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.7)}}\) (asimptote \(277,922.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,283$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,073.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,073.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $240,754$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $71,419$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,597.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,597.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,420$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(927 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,229.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,229.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65,999$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $197,198$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(6.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,111.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(184,111.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,020$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,723.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,723.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,178$ on 2020-07-04