Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,094$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(702 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,327.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,327.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $113$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(30.4 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(106.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $798$ on 2020-07-04

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,198$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,723.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30,723.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,965$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(617 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,924.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,924.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,033$ on 2020-07-04

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $241,419$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(7.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,212.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(234,212.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,854$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(9.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,866.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,866.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,621$ on 2020-07-04

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,839,436$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.17 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,724,997.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 68.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,724,997.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $129,676$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,835.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.8)}}\) (asimptote \(122,835.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,815,435$ on 2020-07-04

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $286,412$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,922.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.7)}}\) (asimptote \(277,922.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,283$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(9.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,073.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,073.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $240,754$ on 2020-07-04

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $71,419$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,597.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,597.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,420$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(927 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,229.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,229.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,999$ on 2020-07-04

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $197,198$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,111.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(184,111.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,020$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,723.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,723.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,178$ on 2020-07-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Malaysia recovered 97%
Malta recovered 97%
Estonia recovered 96%
Denmark recovered 89%
Uganda recovered 89%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Italy recovered 86%
Sri Lanka recovered 81%
Lithuania recovered 80%
Singapore recovered 78%
Qatar recovered 76%
Turkey recovered 75%
Hungary recovered 61%
Chile recovered 52%
Belarus recovered 52%
Kuwait recovered 43%
United Arab Emirates recovered 38%
Afghanistan recovered 38%
Tajikistan recovered 32%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 26%
Poland recovered 24%
Canada recovered 22%
Iran recovered 21%
Peru recovered 9%
Haiti recovered 6%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,857$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.001t}\) (doubling rate \(219.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,252.2}{1 + 10^{-0.089 (t - 15.1)}}\) (asimptote \(83,252.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,641$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(114.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,680.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,680.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $510$ on 2020-07-04

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,658$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,342.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,342.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(60.6 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 18.0)}}\) (asimptote \(117.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76$ on 2020-07-04

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $672$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(195 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{646.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(646.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-07-04

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-07-04

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,993$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(677 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,891.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,891.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 24.3)}}\) (asimptote \(68.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-07-04